MSTR
Bitcoin’s up, but MSTR doesn’t get the full glow-up
TD Cowen bumped its Bitcoin forecast to $109,000, which should’ve been the kind of headline that sends Strategy fans reaching for the confetti. Instead, the firm kept its price target at $260 and basically said: nice bitcoin call, shame about the capital structure.
The core issue is dilution. Strategy has been stacking debt and preferred shares, including STRC, and those claims sit ahead of common shareholders. So even if Bitcoin keeps climbing, the gains don’t flow straight through to MSTR holders like water through a fire hose. More like a leaky garden hose with a few surprise holes.
The math is getting messier
TD Cowen’s analysts argued that Strategy’s bitcoin-per-share story is now a little less shiny once you account for the company’s full financing stack. They also noted Strategy hasn’t been using every fresh dollar to buy Bitcoin outright — some cash is going toward reserves and preferred support, which helps the long-term setup but slows the near-term bitcoin accumulation machine.
That’s why the stock can look expensive or cheap depending on which flavor of optimism you’re serving. Strategy’s valuation has crawled back to around 1x net asset value, and the company’s 848,000 BTC still leaves it sitting on a hefty unrealized profit cushion. But the market is clearly asking a very modern question: if Bitcoin goes up and the capital structure gets fancier, how much of that upside actually belongs to you?
Big picture
TD Cowen still likes the stock, which is the finance-world equivalent of saying, “I love your haircut, but we need to talk.” For investors, the takeaway is simple: MSTR remains a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, but leverage cuts both ways — and dilution can dull the shine even in a raging crypto bull case.